Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Deflation Risk Continues to Rise

Outlook for 2014

Is Deflation A Risk ?

Thus far, the Fed's massive monetary base expansion with a balance sheet exceeding $4 trillion
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
















and largely sits as excess reserves at the Fed, and as such monetary velocity continues to make 50-year lows.  Thus, there has been very little real goods inflation, traditionally driven by a demand-pull dynamic.
Excess Reserves

Monetary Velocity